Saturday, January 23, 2010

Back to the Future


A little expansion on the 1987 similarities.

Both then and now the US Treasury bond market and US Dollar were under persistent heavy pressure while the stock market was high.

Remember the inverse relationship between bond price and interest rate.

The resultant sudden spike in interest rates from bond/currency pressure suffocated the stock market rally.



1987 US Dollar index


1987 Dow vs 10 year Treasury rates


1987 Dow vs 30 year Treasury Bonds





2009 US Dollar Index


2009 TNX 10 Year Treasury Rate


2009 TLT 20 Year Treasury Index



Of course there are never guarantees in the capital markets but this has the markings of a dangerous juncture.


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